Double-digit recovery of the Ukrainian retail - January 2012

The retail market in Ukraine has begun to reveal signs of recovery after the financial crisis, increasing by 21.9% in 2010 compared to the previous year and amounted to UAH 541.5bn ($68.1bn). In 2011 the retail market expanded even more – by 22.5%. However, even this double-figure increase is still low in comparison with the period 2004-2008 and our analyses show that in the short-time perspective, the market is unlikely to reach the pace demonstrated before the crisis.

According to our estimates, in 2010 the Ukrainian retail trade market increased in value to UAH 541.5bn ($68.1bn), which gives a year-on-year growth of 21.9%. In contrast to the earlier contraction, the increase is an indication of recovery. After local currency instability over 2008-2009, in 2010 the exchange rate was relatively stable. However, overall Ukrainian economy was unbalanced, with a big budget deficit and high government dept which continued to increase over 2010. This economic and political instability along with bureaucratic barriers are the factors that influence the most Ukrainian retail trade.