Russian consumer optimism grows

2010-05-11

Russian consumers are more optimistic about the future, according to the latest surveys measuring consumer confidence in Russia, conducted by the Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat).

In Q1 2010 the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) in Russia rose by 10 p.p. in comparison with Q4 2009, to -10%. The index, despite still being negative, represents an improvement in Russian consumer confidence. By way of comparison, in the corresponding quarter of 2009, the CCI was at its lowest point since the onset of the economic crisis, with improvements beginning only later.
An upward trend in CCI, which started after Q1 2009, is attributed to an improvement in Russian consumers’ perception of their future personal financial wellbeing. The index used to measure this outlook reached the level of -4% in Q1 2010, which represents a growth of 3.3 p.p. over the previous quarter’s figures and an improvement of 21 p.p. over the Q1 2009 level.

The share of Russians who expect an improvement in their personal financial wellbeing in the next 12 months reached 14% in Q1 2010, as opposed to 13% in Q4 2009. In the last quarter of 2009, just under one-quarter (21%) of survey respondents expected their financial situation to deteriorate, whereas during the period January-March 2010, this share fell to 17%. As in the previous quarter, over half of those surveyed (56%) believe that their personal financial situation will not change noticeably in the next 12 months.

Another important factor behind the improvement in CCI is an increase in the Big Ticket Purchases Index, a gauge of market conditions based on purchases of items such as automobiles or home appliances. In Q1 2010 the index measured at -30%, an improvement of 4 p.p. over the Q4 2009 level. Furthermore, market conditions for personal savings have become more favourable since Q4 2009, which is reflected by a 5-p.p improvement in the Consumer Savings Index (to -46%) in the first three months of 2010. Just over half (51%) of those surveyed in Q1 2010 identified market conditions as being unfavourable for making big ticket purchases and personal savings. In Q4 2009, 54% of those surveyed expressed this sentiment.

For the first time since the onset of the economic crisis, the Economic Changes Expectation Index in Russia, which measures Russians’ optimism with regard to the country’s economic situation in the near future, has reached a positive indicator. In Q1 2010, the index was at 1%, up 6 p.p. from the Q4 2009 level. The share of survey respondents expecting the economic situation in the country to improve also rose – from 21% in Q4 2009 to 25% in Q1 2010. Conversely, the share of Russian consumers expecting the economic situation in the country to deteriorate in the near future fell from 25% in Q4 to 21% in Q1.
In the index used to assess the recent changes in the Russian economic situation – the Past Situation Index – a positive change was also observed from Q4 2009 to Q1 2010. During this period, the index measurement improved by 13 p.p. to -18%.



Svitlana Barnes
PMR Correspondent